No guarantees, of course.

There never is when choosing an NFL head coach.

But it’s hard to argue with the Saints hiring from within to make defensive coordinator Dennis Allen their 11th head coach, most of which were misses, even what looked like a no-brainer (but disastrous) pick in legendary (but burned out) Mike Ditka.

So you always take your chances.

But the Saints’ move makes sense.

They probably knew it all along once Sean Payton dropped the bombshell that he was stepping down.

The organization did its due diligence anyway, but somebody — and there were excellent candidates interviewed, for sure — was going to have to knock their socks off.

This organization wasn’t broken.

No need to overthink it.

Oh, it’s easy to look at what happened last year in the first season out of the gates without Drew Brees and wonder if it was just a generational quarterback propping up the Who Dats all these years.

Brees certainly has been the centerpiece.

But you can’t judge anything on that wacky, buzzard’s luck of a season with all the injuries, COVID absences and suspensions.

It was amazing that the Saints missed the playoffs by one game, maybe one of Payton’s better coaching jobs, certainly the most resourceful.

So, no, this wasn’t a team, like most looking for a new head coach, looking to blow up anything and start over.

Allen, if you recall, was the interim head coach for one game of that when Payton was homebound with the COVID. All he did he did was shut out Tom Brady and Tampa Bay for one of the more remarkable 9-0 wins you’ll ever see.

One game isn’t a reason to hire him. No one mentioned or suspected at the time that it might be an audition. And it wasn’t.

But if Payton hadn’t stepped down, Allen was probably going to get one of the other NFL openings in this coaching merry-go-round. He’d been rumored for several in recent years.

If you think about it, ever since Allen returned for a second stint under Payton in 2015, the Saints have gradually come to rely more and more on defense rather than the wild shootouts of the early Payton-Brees era.

He likely would have done well in any of this year’s openings. But the best fit for him is the Saints.

The working model on game day will be similar for the head coach, just reversed.

If the gist of his Tuesday news conference was any indication, he plans to still be as involved in “his” defense as Payton was with offense, probably still calling the defensive plays as head coach.

For that he’ll need an offensive coordinator to complement him like his defense did for Payton’s offensive shenanigans.

But that’s a minor detail. It’ll be up to him to decide if current offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael, who worked in relative anonymity in Payton’s shadow, is the choice.

That’s just details.

The best reason for keeping Allen around is that he knows the Saints’ landscape, the territory. In fact, he rode side saddle while Payton was creating one of the best cultures in the NFL.

General Manager Mickey Loomis deserves some credit, too, and Allen said Tuesday that he understands he will have the same input on personnel matters that Payton had with Loomis.

It’s an atmosphere that has been working, a “team culture,” if you will, that has consistently remained at the top of the NFL.

And Allen knows what he’s getting into.

He even said he wanted the team “to mirror its fan base.”

Whoa. Might want tap the brakes on that one a little. This is a fan base that, after all, that when it does make the Super Bowl, is prone to sending hairy-legged men parading down Poydras Street wearing fancy dresses as part of the celebration.

Otherwise, though, Allen just needs to carry on what Payton started. And he has the blue print.

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Scooter Hobbs covers LSU athletics. Email him at scooter.hobbs@americanpress.com