in a fantastically costly, relentlessly negative election played out in unsettled economic times.
There is more at stake, though — the
future of “Obamacare,” the fate of Medicare, too — in a land where the
campaign tab is
counted in the billions of dollars, where voters have been polled
to the point of rebelliousness, and where a 4-year-old approached
national hero status when she tearily protested the onslaught of
campaign advertising.
“I’m tired of Bronco Bamma and Mitt
Romney,” sobbed Abby Evans of Fort Collins, Colo., in a video that went
viral in the campaign’s
final, frantic days.
And why not? The rhetoric alone was cringe-inducing.
Democrats accused Romney of a “war on women.” Romney said President Barack Obama was waging a “war on coal.”
Plunging through a final weekend of campaigning, the two rivals honed their appeals as they flew from one battleground state
to another.
“You want to know that your president means what he says and says what he means,” Obama told a crowd of 4,000 on Saturday
in northeast Ohio, a reference to Romney’s late campaign commercials incorrectly suggesting that Jeep was creating jobs in
China at the expense of domestic workers. “And after four years as president, you know me.”
Romney and his supporters projected confidence in Dubuque, Iowa. “Three more days,” they chanted as he stood on a stage adorned
with a banner that read “Real Change.” Said Romney: “The president speaks well, but I have a plan” to restore the economy
and create jobs.
Apart from the candidates, divided government — perhaps a politically correct term for dysfunctional government — is on the
ballot after a two-year stretch that produced gridlock on many issues and record-low congressional approval ratings.
A victory by Democrat Obama would ensure the survival of the health care law that Republicans oppose so strongly, even if
they win contested control of the Senate and, as expected, hold the House.
A triumph by Republican challenger
Romney would slam the door on tax increases on the wealthy, even if
Democrats demand them
as the price for a deficit deal that includes curtailing the costs
of programs such as Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.
As well, the winner could wind up
appointing one or more new justices to the Supreme Court, where four
justices are older
than 70. The potential exists to alter the balance of a tribunal
that recently has issued 5-4 rulings on abortion, affirmative
action, campaign finance and religion in public life.
The economy has trumped all other
issues in a campaign carried out in the shadow of slow growth, high
unemployment and huge
federal deficits. Heading into the race’s final weekend, the
government reported that 171,000 jobs were created in October.
Unemployment ticked up to 7.9 percent.
“The question of this election is, ‘Do
you want four years of the same or do you want real change?’ ” Romney
asked an audience
in West Allis, Wis., on Friday. He said, correctly, that
unemployment is higher than when Obama took office, and he contended
the president would fail to improve the economy with a second
term. “Four more days,” his supported chanted.
Obama countered that more than 5
million jobs have been created since the depths of the Great Recession.
He ended the campaign
as he began it, insisting the election wasn’t a referendum on his
performance in office, but a choice between him and his
rival. It’s “between going back to the top-down policies that
crashed our economy or adapting the kinds of policies that will
make sure we’ve got a strong and growing middle class,” the
incumbent said Friday in Hilliard, Ohio.
Going into the final weekend of the
campaign, opinion polls showed a race for the popular vote so close that
only a statistically
insignificant point or two separated the two rivals. Soundings in
the nine battleground states tightened after Obama’s poor
performance in the first debate, on Oct. 3, and stayed that way.
Yet Republicans quietly acknowledged
that Romney had so far been unable to achieve the breakthroughs needed
in Ohio and Wisconsin,
and he left it to running mate Paul Ryan to make a campaign-ending
trip to Nevada rather than go himself.
Looking elsewhere for electoral votes,
Romney and his allies sought to expand the political map into
Pennsylvania and, to
a lesser extent, Minnesota and Michigan. Obama’s aides expressed
confidence about all three, although some private Democratic
polls showed relatively close contests and the two sides engaged
in a late advertising war.
Not counting those three states, Obama appeared certain to carry 15 states and the District of Columbia, accounting for 191
of the 270 electoral votes required for victory.
Romney was similarly secure in 23 states, also for 191 electoral votes.
The other nine states have seen much of
the campaigning by the two men and their running mates, Ryan for Romney
and Vice President
Joe Biden for Obama. They were also the targets of most of the
nearly $1 billion in television advertising financed by the
candidates and their allies, both named and anonymous.
The nine battleground states account
for 110 electoral votes combined, and include areas with particularly
high joblessness
(Nevada and North Carolina) as well as low unemployment (Iowa, New
Hampshire and Virginia). Also large Hispanic populations
(Colorado and Florida), an economy heavily dependent on the auto
industry (Ohio) and the home of Romney’s running mate (Wisconsin).
They reflect many of the key
differences that have defined the presidential struggle. Among them are
the competing visions
of economic policy, the disagreement over raising taxes on
upper-income Americans, the 2009 auto bailout that Obama said saved
an industry and that Romney opposed, and immigration, where the
Republican sought to move to the middle after calling during
the primaries on illegal immigrants to self-deport.
The Senate races feature all that — and more.
Republicans must gain three for a
majority if Romney wins the White House, otherwise four. There are 33
seats on the ballot,
23 currently in Democratic hands and 10 in Republican, a lopsided
split that for months made the GOP favored to capture control.
But a series of unexpected turns,
including Republican Sen. OIympia Snowe’s retirement in Maine, Missouri
Rep. Todd Akin’s
remark that women’s bodies have a way of preventing pregnancy
after “legitimate rape,” and tea party-backed state Treasurer
Richard Mourdock’s primary victory over veteran Republican Sen.
Richard Lugar in Indiana have all complicated the party’s
task.
Now, strategists in both parties rate
Democratic Sen. Rep. Claire McCaskill the favorite for a new term in
Missouri. Independent
former Gov. Angus King appears to hold an advantage over major
party rivals in Maine, where Democrats sought to blunt GOP
attacks. Mourdock is struggling against Democratic Rep. Joe
Donnelly in a race where a Libertarian candidate, Andrew Horning,
appears to be draining votes from the Republican.
Even so, there are more than enough competitive races to leave the overall outcome in doubt. The closest of them, judging
from the polls, are in Virginia and Wisconsin, two states where Democrats are retiring. Also in Montana, where Democratic
Sen. Jon Tester is in a struggle with Rep. Dennis Rehberg, and Massachusetts, where late-campaign polls suggest Republican
Sen. Scott Brown is slipping in a race with Elizabeth Warren.
Nowhere is the influence of outside groups tested more than in Ohio, where Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown has been hit with
more than $30 million in televised attack ads, designed to deliver a victory for challenger Josh Mandel.
Not even Democrats claim they will pick up the 25 seats they need to win House control, a virtual concession that the tea
party-infused majority that swept to power two years ago will remain. All 435 seats are on the ballot, although only about
60 are seriously contested.
About two dozen of those involve first-termers. One freshman, Rep. Allen West of Florida, has spent more than $13 million
trying to return to Congress.
Once-a-decade redistricting to take population changes into effect forced incumbents to face off in five races.
One of them gave the campaign a particularly memorable moment. That came in Los Angeles when Rep. Brad Sherman seized the
shoulder of Rep. Howard Berman during a debate, yanked him toward his chest and shouted, “You want to get into this?” The
two men — both Democrats — stood nose to nose before a sheriff’s deputy moved between them.
“I should not have done that,” Sherman said afterward. He is favored to win.
In gubernatorial races, Democratic retirements in Washington, Montana, North Carolina and New Hampshire created opportunities
for Republican gains.