The presidential race doesn’t look good at the moment for Republican nominee Mitt Romney, according to Charlie Cook, who is
recognized as one of the best political handicappers in the country. However, Cook adds the election isn’t over and things
can still change.
“... If something doesn’t happen to shake up the race, Romney will lose,” Cook said in his latest column in National Journal,
a Washington, D.C., news magazine that covers politics.
Getting an unbiased outlook on the
presidential contest, isn’t easy. However, Cook comes as close as anyone
I’ve known who
writes or talks about national politics. He is a Shreveport native
who is founder of the Cook Political Report, an electronic
newsletter that does political analysis for political action
committees, lobbyists, trade associations and others interested
in behind-the-scenes campaigning.
Cook was in Lake Charles last year as
principal speaker at the Hector San Miguel Memorial Fund Award luncheon.
He predicted
that Romney would win the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.
And he added that Romney had the best shot among GOP hopefuls
at beating President Obama.
“It pays to have done something before. Romney has,” Cook said. “The guy has got it down.”
Unfortunately for Romney and the
Republicans, the candidate has had a rocky campaign, and that has
detracted from the state
of the national economy. Cook said last year the economy was
Obama’s major weak spot because of his low job approval ratings.
Obama’s approval rating in a Gallup
poll in late-October of 2011 was 41 percent and his disapproval rating
was 51 percent.
The president’s job approval rating climbed to 50 percent to 44
percent disapproval in a daily Gallup poll done at the end
of last week. Gallup said Obama’s all-time high approval rating of
69 percent came Jan. 22-24, 2009. His lowest was 38 percent
Oct. 15-17, 2011.
“Presidents with approval numbers above
48 to 50 percent in the Gallup poll win re-election,” Cook said when he
was here last
December. “Those with approval ratings below that level usually
lose. If voters don’t approve of the job you are doing after
four years in office, they usually don’t vote for you.”
Cook talked about the economy again in an earlier column last week.
“... While there are plenty of reasons to believe that the economic situation is not getting much better — taking one step
forward, one back — the public seems to be thinking that things are getting better, and in terms of politics, voters count
more than economists,” Cook said.
Obama has been able to sidetrack the
economy as a major issue because he is using Romney’s gaffes to his
advantage. However,
Romney appears to be making a serious effort to put the economy
back at center-stage. Consider what he said last week about
the gross domestic product, which is the market value of all
officially recognized goods and services produced within a country.
“By the way, Russia’s GDP growth is at 4 percent. And we’re at 1.3,” Romney said. “This is unacceptable. The president does
not understand how to get this economy to work for the American people.”
Romney said in one of his TV
commercials that more people are living in poverty than when Obama took
office and that 15 million
more are on food stamps. A Rasmussen Reports poll shows 43 percent
of voters believe a victory for Romney and the Republicans
would lead to a stronger economy next year. Only 34 percent
believe that would happen with an Obama victory and Democratic
control of Congress.
Despite some valid reasons to be pessimistic about Romney’s chances, he can turn things around. Ron Fournier in a Sept. 18
column in National Journal listed five ways “the campaign narrative could turn against Obama.”
“Take a breath, Washington. It’s too early to write off Mitt Romney,” Fournier said, noting the economy is still No. 1.
“Americans are hurting, and the president owns this economy...,” he said.
Foreign policy is another problem for Obama, if Romney can capitalize on “the mess in the Middle East,” Fournier said.
Like many others, Fournier believes the upcoming presidential debates offer Romney the best opportunity to seize the initiative.
The first one is on domestic policy and is scheduled for 8-9:30 p.m. CDT Wednesday.
“... Anything can go wrong in a debate, and Obama is not a perfect debater,” he said.
Obama has made his share of mistakes,
but they haven’t grabbed the headlines and been constantly harped on
like Romney’s miscues.
The president appears to get a pass when it comes to the national
news media. Many agree there is a legitimate fairness issue
in the way Romney is being treated.
Fournier admits Romney is not a good politician, but he said the odds are the candidate’s staff will figure out a way to pull
out of the campaign’s current gloomy outlook.
Time is running short with just over
five weeks to go, but Romney has more than enough time to seize the
momentum. Romney
and his supporters need to do what the 0-3 New Orleans Saints fans
should remember — keep the faith and work harder to right
the ship.
Jim Beam, the retired editor of the American Press, has covered people and politics for more than five decades. Contact him at 494-4025 or jbeam@americanpress.com